View from an elearning developer:
Statement: HTML can play video & Apple is blocking Flash Player on the “i” devices browsers therefore Flash is dead.
Problem: html5/js/and svg missing capabilities and creation tooling increases cost of entry.
I can see at some point Flash IDE/ Flash Builder IDE adding x complier output to a html5/canvas/svg/js package that can begin to act like an swf. Adobe already does it with their compilers for AS-iphone app, and their C+ to SWF bytecode. Write once deploy to many. They have an opensource spec called fxg that is a graphic interchange format that DW has been shown to consume and render svg/canvas versions, same with flash. It’s all about the tooling.
demo vid: http://blogs.adobe.com/jnack/2009/10/sneak_peek_ai_fl_dw_canvas.html
If that happens then why would any flasher care? They wouldn’t. Build your stuff in Flash IDE’s and let the cross-compiler do it’s thing. Will it be the most svelt code ever seen-no. Will you get the job done on-time and on budget, yes. That’s where the html5 guys miss it. They don’t get how flash tooling and advanced classes reduce *Cost Of Entry* to great experience sites-heavy interaction, ria’s, rich media, video with alpa channels in 3d space, complex simulation using physics, 3d, pixel bender filters and particle frameworks. Adobe Air is another example-Adobe gave flashers the ability to build desktop apps. No need to learn another language-just export to air, done. Low cost of entry.
I still look at the elearning courseware I built for VW/DCX/Toyota 6 years ago and I still do not see how you can build it for a reasonable price in HTML5 now. HTML5 is not ready for experience sites with lots of mixed multimedia built on a budget (missing classes and tools). Cost of entry again. I’d love to see google build what i’ve done purely in HTML5 – then tell me how much it cost time wise. Was it under 60k for an 1.5 hour long technical automotive repair training course delivered in a 8 weeks (both web and cd versions) from scratch? In the trenches of paid work it’s the fastest route between point A and B. Currently-Flash.
So will espn switch to html5 for their vids – Probably. Good, pleeeease take over the linear passive tv style playback- “Welcome oompa loompas of interactivity/experience”, meanwhile flash has been making stuff like this: http://aviary.com/tools/myna quickly. Standards like html5 are good at codifying abilities that Flash has shown to be valuable several years earlier.
So my personal view is – whatever. HTML5 video playback != Flash Player abilities yet. HTML5 tooling for creatives are sorely behind flash dev tools.
some balanced reads: